A power struggle in Iran could decide when Trump’s war ends

As the "war" between the United States and Iran continues, analysts suggest Iran is losing its strategic advantage in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane. The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, with joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran, initially saw Iran significantly disrupt maritime traffic through the strait. However, recent reports indicate that the US military has made progress in eroding Iran's control over the waterway, assisting numerous vessels and facilitating increased traffic. Furthermore, the development of alternative oil export routes by Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is diminishing the strait's overall strategic value as a chokehold on global energy supplies.

Compounding Iran's external challenges is an intensifying internal power struggle that could determine the conflict's duration and resolution. Two factions within Iran's leadership are reportedly at odds: a pragmatic group, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, advocates for negotiating a deal with the US, citing economic hardship and public war fatigue. Conversely, hardline elements, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, favor prolonged confrontation, believing it could force the US to concede to their demands. This internal division is seen as a key factor in shaping Iran's future strategy.

In a move that further complicates Iran's position, US President Donald Trump announced on August 29, 2026, a significant oil deal with Venezuela. This agreement aims to grant the US access to Venezuela's substantial oil reserves, with the goal of increasing global supply, replenishing US strategic reserves, and ultimately lowering domestic gas prices, which have remained elevated due to the ongoing conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While the deal is projected to bring considerable investment to Venezuela's oil industry, experts caution that a rapid increase in oil production and an immediate impact on gas prices are unlikely given the extensive time and investment required to revitalize Venezuela's infrastructure.