US intel assesses Putin could launch attack aimed at testing NATO unity

Russia has reportedly escalated its attacks on Ukraine by deploying advanced hypersonic ballistic missiles, a development that has been observed in various large-scale barrages targeting Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, throughout 2026. These strikes have involved weapons like the Oreshnik and Zircon, which Ukraine's air defenses have struggled to intercept due to their speed and advanced capabilities. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged the significant challenge these missiles pose, with some reports indicating that Ukraine's interception rates for ballistic missiles have declined considerably.

In light of these aggressive actions, US intelligence has issued warnings that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be aiming to test NATO's unity and resolve. Assessments from August 2026 suggest that Russia could initiate a limited attack on a NATO member country as early as this fall and potentially up to 2029. Such provocations could range from cyberattacks and hybrid operations to a limited incursion, with the primary objective of undermining the transatlantic alliance's cohesion.

This revised US intelligence assessment departs from previous beliefs that Russia would avoid engaging a NATO country while preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine. The continued use of advanced missiles in Ukraine and the escalating rhetoric surrounding NATO's involvement appear to be part of a broader strategy by Moscow to send a political message and gauge the Western alliance's response.