US intel assesses Putin may test NATO unity; Russia continues missile attacks

Russia has recently intensified its missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure and cities like Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, resulting in a notable increase in casualties. Reports indicate a rise in long-range ballistic missile strikes and drone usage, which Ukrainian officials describe as a campaign to terrorize civilians and disrupt daily life. The European Union has responded to these escalated attacks by implementing new sanctions against Russia.

Concurrently, new U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be considering limited provocations against NATO member states. These assessments indicate a potential shift in Russia's risk calculus, with scenarios ranging from cyberattacks and covert operations to small-scale military incursions aimed at testing NATO's unity and resolve, particularly that of the Trump administration.

Such actions, which could potentially target the Baltic states or Poland, are believed to be designed to operate below the threshold of a full-scale conventional conflict to avoid triggering NATO's Article 5 collective-defense provision. U.S. officials believe the objective is to gauge the alliance's response and exploit any potential divisions. The window for such potential escalations is assessed to be from now until 2029.