SpaceX rocket on collision course with the Moon; scientists predict what could happen

An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is slated to collide with the Moon on August 5, 2026, around 06:35 UTC. The booster, launched in January 2025 to deploy two lunar landers, became space junk after expending its fuel and failing to deorbit, subsequently entering a chaotic trajectory influenced by solar activity and gravitational forces. This marks a rare, unintentional human-made impact on the lunar surface.

Scientists are anticipating this event as a valuable opportunity to study lunar impact dynamics. The 4,000-kilogram (8,800-pound) rocket stage is expected to strike near the Einstein Crater on the sunlit side of the Moon, creating a new crater estimated to be 20-30 meters (66-98 feet) wide. Researchers hope to analyze the resulting ejecta plume, which may be visible from Earth with telescopes, to gain insights into crater formation and the composition of the Moon's subsurface.

The collision is not expected to pose any danger to other lunar assets. This event follows a similar, though initially misidentified, incident in March 2022 when a Chinese Long March 3C rocket booster impacted the Moon, leaving a distinctive double crater. Observing this upcoming impact will allow scientists to collect data from a known object impacting at a known speed, enhancing understanding of both natural and artificial lunar impacts.