Study warns 'super-sized' El Niño could cause 450,000 heat deaths by February

A recent study by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab warns that a powerful El Niño phenomenon, exacerbated by global warming, could lead to over 450,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027. The research, published on September 23, 2026, predicts that 451,000 more fatalities could occur between June 2026 and February 2027 due to unusually high temperatures, exceeding the number expected in a typical year. These projected deaths are in addition to the existing mortality already linked to the climate crisis.

The study's methodology involved combining seasonal temperature forecasts with localized estimates of how rising temperatures affect mortality across more than 24,000 global regions. Countries in the Global South, particularly tropical nations, are expected to bear the brunt of these impacts, with significant tolls projected for regions in the Sahel Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and parts of Latin America. The current El Niño is considered exceptionally strong, potentially bringing temperatures that resemble conditions projected for 20 years in the future.

Beyond direct heat-related deaths, the "super-sized" El Niño is also anticipated to intensify other extreme weather events such as droughts, wildfires, and flooding. Researchers emphasize that the report aims to highlight vulnerable areas where proactive measures, including improved heat forecasts, cooling centers, and enhanced medical facility staffing, could be implemented to mitigate the loss of life.