Trump says Iran war will wrap up ‘very soon’ as US pressure mounts, Hormuz leverage declines

Former President Donald Trump has recently asserted that the ongoing conflict with Iran is nearing a swift conclusion, predicting it will "wrap up very soon" and reiterating that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons. Speaking on various occasions, including at an event in Washington and to reporters, Trump also claimed that oil prices would significantly decrease as the conflict concludes, suggesting the U.S. has achieved "total control of the Hormuz strait." He reportedly rejected recent peace proposals from Iran, indicating that Tehran was "losing so badly" in the conflict.

Concurrently, analysis from experts and intelligence suggests Iran's strategic influence in the vital Strait of Hormuz is diminishing. Despite Iran's efforts to disrupt shipping and its recent attacks on U.S. naval vessels, commercial traffic through the strait has shown signs of recovery, with oil shipments climbing closer to pre-war levels. This perceived loss of leverage is attributed to other nations diversifying their energy supplies and exploring alternative routes, alongside the impact of a U.S. maritime blockade that has severely curtailed Iranian oil exports.

Observers note that while Iran still possesses the capacity to inflict damage, its ability to convert this into significant bargaining power is decreasing as global markets and adversaries adapt to the disruptions. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has indicated that Tehran is awaiting a formal response from the U.S. regarding its ceasefire proposals, despite Trump's public rejection of earlier offers.