Trump's approval slumps in Texas as Republicans face ominous turn in midterm campaign

Former President Trump's influence is facing a significant test in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections, as recent polls indicate tight Senate races in traditionally Republican states like Texas and Alaska. Trump's approval ratings are currently underwater in a majority of states, including those with competitive Senate contests, with national polls showing his approval hovering between 30% and 39% in early October 2026. Voter sentiment is largely shaped by issues such as the ongoing conflict in Iran, rising gas prices, and the cost of living, with many voters indicating their congressional vote is primarily against the current president.

In Texas, the Senate race between Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is remarkably close, with several polls placing them in a near tie or Talarico holding a slight advantage. The competitiveness of this race has reportedly caused concern among Republicans, especially given that Trump had campaigned for Paxton. Similarly, the Alaska Senate race sees incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan in a tight battle against Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, a contest further complicated by the presence of a third candidate with a similar name. This dynamic has prompted Trump to publicly urge Alaskans to vote for the "real" Dan Sullivan.

These unexpectedly competitive races in states that Trump won by substantial margins in 2024 highlight a broader challenge to the former president's endorsement power and the Republican Party's hold on Congress. Democrats are actively targeting these and other traditionally Republican-leaning states in their effort to regain control of the Senate.