Judges skeptical of Trump ballot effort as early voting data emerges in key US states

Federal judges have expressed considerable skepticism regarding the Trump administration's attempt to compel California to set aside thousands of mail ballots in the ongoing midterm elections. A three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Sunday questioned the legal basis, timing, and constitutionality of the Justice Department's request to intervene in California's vote-counting process. The administration's lawsuit seeks to prevent the tabulation of over 20,000 ballots linked to individuals it alleges are likely noncitizens, a claim California officials dispute as "deeply flawed."

This judicial scrutiny comes amidst the backdrop of emerging early voting data across several key U.S. states. As of October 26, 2026, over 27.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots in the midterms, a figure approximately 9% higher than at the same point in the 2022 elections. Midwestern states like Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas have shown varying trends, with some reporting significant increases in early turnout. While Democrats account for a larger share of early voters in states that provide party registration data, election experts caution that these figures do not definitively predict overall election outcomes.